Nigeria is alive, but it might as well be dead. Oh, that’s a bit sensational, so let’s scratch that. Nigeria is not dead—at least not yet. But curiously, it would appear that its funerals are being held already. There are two possibilities behind this: the country is dying and those in charge of its fiscal health are certain it might not survive. So, they are holding its funerals before announcing the passing. Perhaps.
In any case, that Nigeria is SICK—and probably dying—is visible across all sectors. Health. Education. Economy. Most importantly, Security. On the fiscal side, the signs are equally ominous. To understand this, one needs not to look elsewhere than the direction of those in charge of our treasuries: accountants-general.
Earlier in the month, operatives of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) arrested Nigeria’s Accountant General of the Federation (AGF), Ahmed Idris, in connection with diversion of funds and money laundering activities to the tune of N80 billion. The EFCC said that its verified intelligence showed that the AGF raked off the funds through bogus consultancies and other illegal activities using proxies, family members and close associates.
Idris was equally summoned repeatedly by EFCC for interrogation but he failed to honour the invitations.
In recent years, Nigerians have become so numb to corruption revelation and the usual refrain each time alleged embezzlement of a huge figure is announced is: So, what? But sometimes, data can help keep them awake.
Making Sense of the Numbers
N80 billion might appear mundane as documented in EFCC’s press statement, but the figure is way, way heftier when put in appropriate context.
First off, to understand how huge the figure is, a simple contextualization of the earnings of Nigeria’s 36 states can help with insights.
According to the 2021 half-year report of states’ Internally Generated Revenue released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), only ONE (1) state generated IGR that surpassed the figure alleged misappropriated by Idris. The state, expectedly, was Lagos, which recorded N267bn within the period.
FCT, the next state after Lagos, recorded N69bn within the period, a figure short of Idris’ N80bn.
Other top-earning states like Rivers, Ogun, and Delta recorded far lower figures of N57bn, N54bn and N41bn, respectively.
States like Kaduna, Oyo, Akwa-Ibom, Ondo and Edo that trailed the top-4 states on the log recorded meagre N26bn, N25bn, N18bn, N17bn, and N17bn, respectively.
Interestingly, these are the top earning states in the country within the period.
More bizarre is the realisation that within the period, all of the states in at least two regions of the federation made less than N80bn in revenue earnings. While the entire states in the south-east recorded N52bn, all of the states in the north-east recorded N39bn.
To be sure, the components of Internally Generated Revenues (IGR) are road taxes, pay as you earn, direct assessment, revenue from ministries, departments and agencies, and other taxes which are connected to land-related fees and sundry levies.
It’s also pertinent to state also that due to poor earnings from IGR, many of the states are heavily indebted and can barely pay salaries.
Paid Prodigals are Here
Before Idris, Nigeria has had renown paid prodigals in sensitive offices like its accountant-general’s, notable among whom was Jonah Otunla, who was arraigned along with others and seven companies for an alleged N2 billion fraud in 2017.
Now, as though the incumbent accountant-general’s corruption allegation was not heart-wrenching enough, barely a week after the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission announced the N80bn scandal, it declared the Rivers State Accountant-General, Fubara Siminayi, and 58 others wanted for N435 billion fraud. Siminayi and four other Rivers State government officials, are wanted for suspected N117 billion fraud, alleged criminal conspiracy, money laundering, misappropriation of public funds, and abuse of office.
In a macabre twist of fate, the wanted accountant-general, who had remained at large, clinched the Rivers State’s PDP governorship ticket on Thursday.
The nationwide indifference maintained by Nigerians has beneath it the underlying assumption that the nation can withstand the mindless butchering from different corners.
Many are often quick to dismiss the danger of Nigeria’s survival on the basis of its presumed oil wealth. “Nigeria is rich and cannot feel the impact of the theft,” they would say, casually.
But how plausible are these claims in the context of available data?
Is Nigeria Really ‘Rich’?
When Nigerians say that the nation is ‘rich’, they often refer to its oil resource.
Since it discovered oil in 1956, Nigeria has relied heavily on the natural resource to drive governance, fix infrastructure and run its economy. Oil contributes about 90% of export earnings in Nigeria, hence, the economy is susceptible to the vagaries of the volatile oil market. This is almost the same for other oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia.
But is Nigeria really oil-rich—which could help contextualise the question of whether Nigeria is even rich at all? The answer lies in the data.
First, according to latest statistics from the Energy Information Administration for April 2022, Nigeria is not even among top producers of oil.
The top producers are United States (18,875,000 bpd), Saudi Arabia (10,835,000 bpd), Russia (10,778,000 bpd), Canada (5,558,000 bpd), China (4,993,000 bpd), Iraq (4,149,000 bpd), United Arab Emirates (3,786,000 bpd), Brazil (3,689,000 bpd), Iran (3,458,000 bpd), and Kuwait (2,717,000 bpd).
Now within this period, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell to an average of 1.219 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April 2022, representing a 1.53% decline compared to 1.238mbpd recorded in the previous month according to details of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for May 2022.
Interestingly, when the production figures are placed against the nation’s population, estimated at about 180million people, Nigeria indeed produces less than a barrel per 100 people. This is poor in comparison to other oil-producing countries who can indeed be described as oil-rich. For instance, Saudi Arabia with its 34 million people produces about 31 barrels per 100 people, while Kuwait with its 4 million people produces 66 barrels per 100 people.
Stopping the Funerals
As can be seen, Nigeria is not ‘oil-rich’ neither is it “rich” in the real sense of the word. It obviously cannot afford the looting going on across the country from Abuja through Port Harcourt and elsewhere.
The paid prodigals in charge of Nigeria’s treasuries are preparing the nation’s funerals; it’s left for other Nigerians to understand that the nation cannot survive this degree of butchering and stop the burial rites immediately.
